Happy fifth anniversary of Celo mainnet! Launched on Earth Day 2020 as a mobile-first, carbon-negative EVM-compatible L1, and now, half a decade later, Celo has officially “returned home” to Ethereum as an L2, doubling down on its mission to create the conditions of prosperity––for everyone.
There’s no better time to pause and reflect on how far we’ve come as a community and ecosystem, and where we can get to over the next five years and beyond. But first, Q1 2025 was massive for us. Not only did core contributors at cLabs complete a seamless, milestone migration to an L2 as the industry (and other EVM L1s) looked on, we saw significant ecosystem developments like the launch of Aave and Velodrome on Celo, which led to a windfall of new DeFi activity, proving our thesis that Celo is the hub for stablecoins and onchain FX. At ETHDenver, we also launched Self, a new zk identity protocol in collaboration with the former OpenPassport team, which is already live in the iOS and Play Stores. All this on the back of an incredible 2024 for Celo.
“OK, what are you saying, Rene?”
Don’t sleep on Celo. We are officially entering our “winning era,” and I won’t be surprised to see us as a leading L2: leading the charts in bringing new users onchain, leading real-world impact at scale, leading a digital economy for all, among other achievements. By 2030, I see a trillion-dollar onchain economy on Celo, more on that further below.
So, how do we think about what’s ahead here at Celo Foundation? We’ve always looked to the Ethereum Foundation and its philosophy of long-term thinking, subtraction, and stewardship of values as guidance and inspiration. If we want to truly succeed and have our technology be decentralized and resilient, a Foundation can’t accumulate too much power or play too significant a role, which is why we’ve always opted to redistribute opportunities to the broader community.
We’re not here to build the same kind of behemoth corporations that this technology is trying to leave behind.
Celo isn’t here to replicate old systems—we’re building new ones. Modular, value-driven, open by design. We believe in the power of small, agile teams, co-creating and coordinating via new governance structures. While we’re not interested in building another GE or JP Morgan, we will embrace working with companies that are looking to transition onchain.
This is the case with our longstanding partnership with Opera, who are embracing Web3 technology to use it themselves across their business and introducing organizations globally to the benefits of stablecoins, whether it’s instant, low-cost payments for merchants via Pretium or flexible music streaming subscriptions with Mdundo. Opera is a leading example of the flywheel effect possible at scale as we onboard companies to become meaningful participants in this accessible, diverse, and open onchain economy.
As values-driven stewards, we have prioritized incubating core projects and products, particularly when we identify a critical need in the ecosystem that remains unmet. We accelerate these solutions responsibly, as most recently, with the launch of Self, and even CxAI, our user-centric AI initiative, which we spearheaded with 15+ partners, building at the forefront of Web3 and AI.
Today, the Celo Foundation is aiming to be much more surgical and precise in its execution and prioritization, with our ecosystem partners in the community running healthy onchain governance (Celo Mondo, Celo Regional DAO Council), leading Pubic Goods Funding (CeloPGF, CICLOPS), or driving key activity on the Celo platform (Opera, Mento, Celo Camp, et al.)––in this way, there will be more freedom for Celo to uniquely and organically move forward and grow.
What’s next?
Introducing Vision 2030, a strategic look at Celo’s next five years––a battle for crypto’s soul.
It’s worth imagining where Celo could be by 2030. In 2015, UN member states adopted the “Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development.” Many of its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) align closely with Celo’s vision to build a fairer, more equitable financial system that fosters prosperity for everyone. As we enter our “winning era,” our primary focus is growth—bringing more people onchain, scaling positive impact use cases, and expanding the world’s onchain economy.
Importantly, we anticipate a resurgence of regenerative economic concepts, with Celo well-positioned to be an integral leader. Many of our founding principles, inspired by Charles Eisenstein’s Sacred Economics, and the notion of “making money beautiful” via natural capital-backed assets were slightly early, albeit prescient. With the continued momentum of projects like GainForest and Grassroots Economics, they are proving that Web3’s tech stack offers a much more differentiated way to scale climate and community-oriented solutions.
Not only will we continue to invest here as a Foundation and ecosystem, it’s equally important to provide a “safe space” for the promise of these mass-coordination tools to solve the wicked problems of our time, from climate change to extreme poverty.
Here’s how we’re defining winning over the next five years:
One good proxy for economic activity onchain are daily transactions. The fees generated by these transactions ensure Celo’s long-term success and sustainability. Celo is currently processing ~1.25M, concurrent with a significant rise in chain revenue (in CELO), year over year (+889%), roughly at a $2M per year run rate. With all of our ecosystem activity in flight, we expect those numbers to continue to rise significantly.
(Source: Growthepie.xyz)
At the same time, the move from an L1 to an L2 allowed for a major update of Celo’s tokenomics with the implementation of the Great Celo Halvening following the community’s unanimous support of CGP-169 and its execution. This is leading to a reduction in inflation from 2% to roughly 1%, among other benefits. Together, these recent developments and changes have put Celo in an excellent position for long-term sustainability, further accelerating the path toward our overarching mission: to build with purpose and build for all.
The 2030 Celo Economy
- Total Value Settled (TVS): Exceeding $1 trillion in annual transactions on Celo
- Stablecoins: $850 billion+ in onchain FX markets and stablecoin payments
- By 2030, we could have 100+ local currency stablecoins live on Celo, covering the majority of the global currency landscape
- We could also have liquid spot markets for most pairs, and future markets for major currencies
- We’ll see a mix of onchain FX trading, via various front-ends (retail, business/institutional), B2B payments in stablecoins, and of course, P2P payments
- Other Tokens: $150 billion+ in additional activity, including AI agent contributions
- Stablecoins: $850 billion+ in onchain FX markets and stablecoin payments
- Massive Global Reach: Over one billion people are connected to and benefitting from Celo’s onchain economy.
- Leading Identity Standard: Aim for Self to become the global standard for proof-of-human and identity onchain.
- Agents x Humans. We see a future where (possibly, millions of) humans deploy their own AI agents to participate in the onchain economy. While we expect some ecosystems to be agent-first, with the majority of transactions facilitated by agents, CxAI aims to leverage AI for user-centricity, with agents augmenting and supporting humans.
- Real Usage: Target tens of millions of DAUs engaging in activities like (1) claiming basic income or social dividends, (2) earning through micro-work, (3) sending stablecoin payments and remittances, or (4) participating in social and entertainment apps, etc.
- Application Revenue. Protocols and applications built on Celo generated revenue to grow above $1 billion
At this scale, Celo’s economy would rival the GDP of the top 20 countries, comparable to that of Switzerland or Saudi Arabia. While these figures aren’t directly comparable to national GDPs, they highlight the potential impact and scale of the ecosystem.
To quote Vitalik at our recent Hardfork Party in Celo’s San Francisco headquarters, “The Celo community are some of the best examples of the great results that the Ethereum ecosystem and crypto as a whole has to offer.” We have always been, first and foremost, about the best of what we as humans can achieve, bound together by our tireless belief in the ability to leverage blockchain technology for the greater good, and to forge a better future for the many, not the few.
Thank you to the entire Celo community and ecosystem––my colleagues, friends, and partners in arms. Would love to hear others in the community share their vision for 2030, and excited to support each other on the journey ahead.
Cheers to the next five years!
