Reserve mandate: 1:1 stable value asset basket

Mento
29

Hey Mark,

I think your post is very relevant in this thread.

One of the things that has come into focus because of recent events and discussions is that the Celo assets in the reserve poses the same risks to this protocol that Luna posed for Terra. In a de-pegging situation the value of Celo could go to essentially zero.

So, it’s the non-Celo assets that actually act as the reserve that could repay the coin holders.

Given that risk I have suggested in another discussion that the Celo assets not be counted as part of what we consider the reserve that is backing the stable coins.

At this minute the total reserve value is $268,632,850
The Celo portion value is $104,220,663

That means the non-Celo reserve is $164,412,187
The outstanding supply of stable coins is $100,592,110

The current ratio of non-Celo assets to outstanding supply is at 163%

That’s not the end of the assessment though.

In the current market conditions it is not unreasonable to fully expect BTC and ETH to drop considerably. Estimates for BTC during this bear cycle suggest that we could see prices for it in the neighborhood of $20,000, so roughly a one third drop from today. It is reasonable to expect ETH to drop more than that but for today I’ll keep the math simple.

Non-Celo $164,412,187
Minus 1/3 $54,804,062 to consider value at a reasonable probability of market price in the near future
Net probable value of non-Celo assets available to cover stable coin debt $109,608,124

The realistic colateralization percentage after correcting for market conditions and real risks is roughly 109%.

So in reality, Celo isn’t over collateralized.

I agree that the stablecoin needs to be designed to withstand a bankrun and in case of a bankrun the CELO token will be almost worthless right now. I also agree that there is at least 30% more downside potential for BTC & ETH. So your I follow your calculation. At current price levels of BTC & ETH the treasury is overcollateralized though.
How would that calculation change if the treasury grows by 100M or 500M at current CELO, BTC & ETH price levels?